Table of Contents

  1. Why September 2025 was a turning point
  2. The big shifts now shaping e-commerce
  3. 2.1 ONDC & the rise of networked commerce (India)
  4. 2.2 Social commerce: TikTok’s growing pains and potential
  5. 2.3 B2B goes mainstream
  6. 2.4 Macroeconomics, policy & cross-border
  7. What consumers want in 2025–26
  8. Storefront stack: What to build (and what not to)
  9. Growth playbook (traffic → conversion → retention)
  10. Metrics that matter in 2026
  11. Future Outlook 2026+
  12. Internal linking suggestions

1) Why September 2025 was a turning point

  • India’s ONDC pushed fresh incentives across logistics, grocery/D2C and F&B through September, signaling the network’s intent to accelerate category adoption and lower take-rates for small sellers. The Economic Times+1
  • Social commerce is maturing—but ethics & context matter. TikTok’s AI visual search briefly (and controversially) attached Shop suggestions to sensitive news footage, underscoring how automated merchandising needs guardrails. The Verge
  • B2B e-commerce is exploding. MercadoLibre launched a multi-country B2B unit, citing a market four times larger than B2C by volume—an inflection that affects payments, logistics and catalogs. Reuters
  • Holiday forecasts & payments scale: US holiday online sales are projected to rise up to 9% and global e-commerce payments could exceed $13T by 2030. Retail Dive+1
  • Retail still omnichannel. Physical stores remain ~80% of sales globally in 2025—e-commerce wins when it complements stores instead of replacing them. Workday Blog

Bottom line: Networked marketplaces, social commerce, and B2B are accelerating—while policy, ethics, and omnichannel fundamentals decide who actually wins.


2) The big shifts now shaping e-commerce

2.1 ONDC & networked commerce (India)

ONDC’s September programs pay sellers and logistics partners per order and fund growth in F&B, grocery and D2C, extending support through Sept 30. Expect continued lower distribution costs, better reach into tier-2/3 cities, and new buyer apps (like OneTicket integrating with ONDC for transit). The Economic Times+2techshotsapp.com+2

Implication: Brands selling in India should pilot ONDC rails for incremental demand, diversify beyond single marketplaces, and localize catalog/assortment for regional search.

2.2 Social commerce: potential + pitfalls

  • TikTok Shop’s experimental visual search shows how every frame can turn shoppable—but mis-contextualized automation erodes trust. Build human-in-the-loop merchandising and sensitive-content filters. The Verge
  • Retailers are leaning into TikTok: even UK grocer Asda is launching a charity TikTok Shop activation at month-end—evidence that large brands still view TikTok as a growth lever. Retail Bulletin | Daily UK Retail News
  • US policy flux persists, but industry guidance is to prepare operations—as continued availability looks increasingly likely. Chain Store Age

Implication: Treat social commerce as mid-funnel demand gen + checkout rail. Pair it with first-party email/SMS capture and post-purchase journeys you control.

2.3 B2B goes mainstream

MercadoLibre’s B2B launch across LATAM formalizes a broader reality: corporate procurement is moving to marketplace UX—with higher AOVs, repeat purchases, and lower returns. If you sell equipment, packaging, or inputs, build B2B price lists, approval flows, net terms, and quote carts now. Reuters

2.4 Macroeconomics, policy & cross-border

  • Holiday 2025 e-commerce growth expected up to 9% despite tariff turbulence. Retail Dive
  • US de-minimis exemptions are in flux, affecting sub-$800 imports—rethink cross-border duties, HS codes, and landed-cost calculators. weareprocarrier.com
  • Experiential retail + seasonal storytelling are trending as brands seek differentiation beyond discounts. TrendHunter.com

3) What consumers want in 2025–26

  • Fast, fair, transparent shipping with accurate ETAs and eco options.
  • Assisted discovery (AI search, chat, quizzes) that respects context and privacy—no creepy cross-use.
  • Flexible payments (local rails, BNPL where allowed) and seamless returns.
  • Omnichannel confidence: “buy online, exchange in store,” accurate local inventory, pickup windows.
  • Values alignment: sustainability and ethical sourcing increasingly influence conversion. Workday Blog

4) Storefront stack: What to build (and what not to)

Must-haves

  • Headless or hybrid storefront: speed + flexibility for merch experiments.
  • First-party data layer: event tracking (server-side), consent, CDP or lightweight data warehouse.
  • Search & recommendations with human guardrails: combine AI retrieval with exclusion rules and sensitive-content policies (lesson from TikTok). The Verge
  • Marketplace expansion: ONDC (India), regional marketplaces, and B2B catalogs. The Economic Times+1
  • Cross-border engine: duties, taxes, de-minimis logic; automated landed-cost and localized payment methods. weareprocarrier.com

Nice-to-haves (test first)

  • Live shopping and creator affiliates on social.
  • Store appointments and AR try-ons for high-consideration categories.
  • Sustainable delivery options (consolidated shipping slots, pickup lockers).

5) Growth playbook (traffic → conversion → retention)

Traffic & demand gen

  1. Search everywhere SEO: optimize for classic SERP + social search (TikTok/Instagram), and structured answers. Build FAQ/HowTo schema; publish expert POVs to qualify as a “preferred source.” Shopifreaks
  2. Short-form video engine: produce weekly reels/shorts from each editorial pillar with one clear CTA (view product or join list).
  3. Network effects: join ONDC (India) and at least one regional marketplace; pilot B2B catalogs for wholesale leads. The Economic Times+1
  4. Seasonal storytelling: trend-hunter style drops, limited bundles, charity collabs (e.g., Asda example) to build community. TrendHunter.com+1

Conversion

  1. Offer architecture: anchor bundles, value-stacks, and time-boxed perks (free upgrade to priority shipping).
  2. Human-checked AI recs: deploy AI search/recommendations with exclusions around sensitive content; add transparency labels. The Verge
  3. Checkout elasticity: local wallets, UPI in India, COD where trust is low; experiment with thresholds for free shipping.
  4. Returns as a feature: self-service portal, instant store credits, prepaid labels.

Retention & LTV

  1. Memberships & replenishment: predictable SKUs (beauty, pet, grocery) with skip/modify flexibility.
  2. B2B relationship play: negotiated pricing tiers and reorder cadences; integrate procurement workflows. Reuters
  3. Post-purchase content: care guides, how-to reels, community UGC; push NPS + reviews 10–14 days post-delivery.

6) Metrics that matter in 2026

  • Contribution margin after returns (not just ROAS).
  • First-purchase payback period (ad + COGS + fulfillment).
  • % revenue from owned channels (email/SMS/app) vs. paid/social.
  • Cross-border gross margin net of duties/taxes (watch de-minimis changes). weareprocarrier.com
  • Wholesale/B2B share of revenue and reorder interval. Reuters
  • ONDC channel ROI (acquisition cost + incentive capture). The Economic Times+1

7) Future Outlook 2026+

  • Networked commerce standardization. ONDC-like models inspire other regions; interoperability lowers distribution cost globally. The Economic Times
  • B2B eclipses B2C growth. Expect richer quoting, samples, and service layers; marketplaces become procurement hubs. Reuters
  • Social commerce normalizes—but with ethics. Automated product tagging persists with stronger context filters and human overrides. The Verge
  • Policy-aware cross-border. Retailers invest in duty/tax intelligence and localized payments as rules tighten. weareprocarrier.com
  • Omnichannel wins. Stores continue to carry ~80% of sales; the leaders are those who blend store theatre with digital convenience. Workday Blog

8) Internal linking suggestions

  • Link “How to Grow Your Blog with Social Media” when discussing social commerce content pipelines.
  • Link “Top Digital Marketing Trends & Tech Innovations for 2025” when mentioning AI, privacy, and martech.
  • Link “Tech Industry Updates + Marketing Growth Hacks (Sept 2025)” from the Growth Playbook section for deeper tactics.